3rd Quarter 2009 update

I am way overdue for an update so here it goes.

Historically, Breckenridge and Summit County along with the rest of the Rocky Mt.  ski resorts have been somewhat immune to market slow downs and tend to be lagging indicators.  The lagging indicator part is still true but all the resorts have been nagged by slower sales and downward pressure on pricing.

There have been some bright spots.  In Breckenridge, Frisco and Silverthorne according to the MLS the average price edged upwards for a single family residence.   In Breckenridge the average price move up to

Area                         Avg Price             %Change

Breckenridge       $1,082,966         +7.1%

Frisco                    $   850,057          -3.8%

Silverthorne        $1,006,661         +4.8%

Duplexes were a mixed bag.

Area                            Avg Price             %Change

Breckenridge          $  946,000          +16.3%

Frisco                        $  660,000          -17.9%

Silverthorne            $ 516,429            -11.2%

Condominiums were the toughest part of the market in all areas, with average price and volume down in all the towns.

Area                            Avg Price             %Change

Breckenridge          $392,217               -39.2%

Frisco                        $387,292              –   5.5%

Silverthorne            $239,521              -   7.5%

From a Realtor perspective while average prices are somewhat varied the fact the the sales volume (number of transactions) is off significantly is having an impact on those sellers that are dealing with valid offers.  Cash is king with buyers and they expect to be able to get some significant discounts.

We have seen an increase in the number of foreclosures and short sales but  nothing that is off the charts like many other areas of the country.  Summit County has only had 41 properties go back to the bank as of early November.

Clearly we are in a mixed market and expect tough sledding for the next couple of months.  The key will be interest rates which are currently hovering around 5% for well qualified buyers.  Should they begin to rise, prospective buyers will have to weigh price vs possible rate increase and determine if a tipping point has been reached.   Remember that you never know when the market bottom has been reached until after prices have  risen again.

3rd Quarter Stats for Summit County

In spite of the constant drum beat of disappointing financial news we hear on a daily basis, property in Summit County is performing extremely well when compared to the nation as a whole. So far this year, through Oct 31^st, while sales of single family homes have dropped 32% while the average price has stayed relatively flat with a .3% increase. Condominiums are showing a somewhat different trend. While the number of sales were down 42%, the average sales price increased 26%. But, as always, beware of raw statistics. I am sure that a large percentage of the increase was from sales in Crystal Peak Lodge at the base of Peak 8, where 42 units were closed this fall for an average price of $1,282,381, with an average price of $1,008 per square foot. Clearly this is a new high for any project in Summit County. It is interesting to note that there are 18 of those units back on the market as of this time.

The sales of vacant land were another bright spot. While showing some the same trends as the single family homes and condominiums. Transactions were down by 53% and yet the average increase in price was just over 30%. Last year the average price was $387,524 while this year it was $505,246.

The other area we are all watching is the number of active listings currently on the market. Over the course of the year we have seen an increase in the total number of listings. Starting in October that number began to flatten out. We are still below our historical number on a percentage basis. Yes, the number of properties on the market is increasing, but the established residential base is slowly increasing as well as we approach build out. We are still below our historical number of listings on a percentage basis.

So what does this mean? It is my belief that we will see a relatively flat market in 2009. A detailed analysis of some lower priced properties in Dillon showed very little or no price increase from 2007. Interestingly, they averaged 7% appreciation year over year since 1992

2008 Mid-Year Update

August 3^rd of last year there were 793 properties for sale in Summit County (not including land) with 402 single family homes, 238 condos, 65 townhomes and 88 duplexes. Today July 28^th, 2008 we have 1686 properties for sale with 630 single family homes, 774 condos, 141 townhomes and 141 duplexes! While that may seem like a lot of inventory, it really isn’t as we are simply approaching normal levels of real estate for sale in any given area. We’ve just been spoiled with extremely low inventory levels making is easier to price property and easier to get a buyer to buy.

Our percentage of what is on the market as to what the total number of properties our market contains by area goes about like this…the Keystone area has about 7.5% of their available properties on the market today, Breckenridge has about 9.75% of their available properties on the market today, Frisco/Copper has about 7% of their available properties on the market today and Silverthorne has around 9% of their available properties on the market. I would say that as those percentages increase property values would slow or even decrease if those percentages get up high enough and with so much more on the market to choose from with fewer (almost by half) buyers out there looking to buy today pricing will become more and more important.

Right now we as a county are on track for sales totals similar to 2001 and 2002 – at least for transaction numbers. This years’ sale prices will be much higher though!  So,  average property values are still increasing although at a much slower pace in in the past couple of years.

The reason I mention this is that I have received questions about our current inventory.  One of the recurring questions is what is the percentage of properties for sale as it relates to the number of properties that are out there in each area. Currently each area is under 10%.  By contrast,  2001 at the end of the year Keystone had 32% of their properties on the market ‘for sale’! In that same year Silverthorne at the end of the year had 30%, Dillon had 32%, Breckenridge had 20%, and Frisco had 15%. These high percentage of properties on the market occurred in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and in 2005 it changed and the percentage went down.

Anyway, the percentages we are seeing today are much lower than those that occurred in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004. Interesting stuff.

Once we see the results from July and August we should know the direction of the market for the next 6 months or so.

2007 Year End Market Statistics

Doom and Gloom is all your hear from the real estate pundants. We are fortunate here in Summit County that so far, we have dodged the sub prime mess. Foreclosures are for intents and purposes non existent.

Summit County is the just the opposite. Our market remains strong and is a classic case for supply and demand. In 2007 there were 409 fewer sales, but the total market value of the transactions was over 1.6 billion or .3% off the record sales of 2006.

In fact, the average price increase for all of Summit County was 18.9%. Silverthorne and Keystone had price increases of 24.9% and 34.86% respectively. Breckenridge led the way with an average price of $651,668 (includes residential and land) up 17.9% from 2006, followed by Frisco at %546,429 up a mere 5.9% increase.

Stay tuned for the July 2008 update.

2006 Year End Market Statistics

Housing Sales

Overall housing sales for all of 2006 are down a slight 2.3% (2,809 vs. 2,874 sales). The total dollar sales actually rose to $1,274,412,429 – a considerable 12.8% increase. As a result, the average selling price was able to post higher at $453,689. This is a whopping increase 15.4% increase over the average for 2005. The average price of a single family house climbed more that $100,000 to $785,564 – a 16.4% increase.

We have not seen any reduction in demand. Just the opposite. Any reduction in the number of total sales is due to a lack of listings on the market. Total listings are the lowest since the early 1980’s. This is driving prices higher especially in the condominum market.

Lot Sales

Sales of subdivided lots for the year were comparable with last year (459 vs. 455 sales). The average selling price climbed considerably from $267,196 a year ago to $304,085 (up 13.8%) The total sales volume came in at 139.6 million – an increase of 17.9 million or 14.8% The Upper Blue area (Farmers Corner – Hoosier Pass) including Breckenridge accounted for 62.7% of the total sales.